"Most experienced shopper on the Web" makes 10 predictions for Holiday 2000

[November 30th 2000]

No need to pout, worry, or cry this year about online orders that don't arrive in time for the holidays. For the most part, it's the season of hope for e-retailers and online consumers alike according to Kelly Mooney, principal and online strategist. Dubbed the Web's most experienced shopper by Net Company, Mooney expects online customers will have a surprisingly happy holiday experience from familiar companies, particularly Web retailers with a catalog or brick and mortar counterparts.

"Based on our tracking studies, retailers made huge improvements from holiday 1999 to summer 2000," said Mooney. "Those investments are certain to deliver a better experience for holiday shoppers."

Since 1997, Mooney has led a team of Internet analysts who, as "undercover" cybershoppers at resource, systematically track the online customer experience. Twice a year the team reviews 50 leading sites on more than 500 consumer-based measures per site. This rigorous analysis includes making over 250 purchases, sending hundreds of queries to customer service lines and surveying thousands of real shoppers. The net result-Resource E- commerce Watch-has been hailed as one of the industry's leading sources on how well Web retailers are performing-through the eyes of the consumer.

Mooney's 10 predictions confirm that a multi-channel holiday, sure to delight, is in store for most online consumers ... despite a few foreseeable glitches.

Consumers will:

1. Experience faster sites
   A 17-second average main menu load time was experienced this summer, down from 25 seconds last holiday, with 8-10 seconds expected this holiday.

2. Fewer technical glitches
   25% of holiday 1999 orders and 8% of summer 2000 orders were wrought with technical glitches. Ramped up capacity and outsourcing or investment in server capacity will improve the experience. Overall, glitches are expected to continue to drop.

3. Better email response time
   Major inroads have been made to close the gap from the black hole e- mail response of 1999. Leading retailers are expected to deliver within six hours this holiday -- a 300% improvement.

4. Experience easier returns
   Policies are explicitly communicated on the site and in the package. Many will now permit in-store returns (with the exception of Amazon and ToysRUs -- sure to disappoint and surprise consumers).

5. On-time arrivals
   14% were late last year, and 8% during the summer months. Due to better pre-purchase communication about out-of-stock items, shipping options, and real time inventory, retailers will do better.

6. Improved order tracking
   While consumers may still be leery about on time deliveries, retailers have made significant efforts to enable consumes to track their orders.

7. Access to 24/7 call centers.
   Unlike last holiday, leading retailers are offering 24/7 call centers to better assist consumers, however it is still likely that insufficient training of seasonal staff will pose challenges for consumers who need quick and accurate answers.

8. More real time help by online customer service.
   Live representatives will provide reassurance, make product suggestions, and clarify policies via live chat. Customers should expect longer queues during peak times.

9. Widespread offers for free shipping.
   Retailers are focused on luring new shoppers and boosting order size by providing free shipping and returns on minimum orders (typically $50 - $100).

10. Inundated by survey requests.
    Retailers will solicit customer feedback in order to improve the customer experience and develop effective retention strategies to ensure future funding.

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